FINANCIAL RATIOS AND SPECULATIVE DYNAMICS IN THIRD-LINER STOCKS: EVIDENCE FROM THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

Franse franse; Ferryanto Pietoyo; Steven Yoel Purnama; Gabriel Goardy; Alexander Tyrone Liong; Maichal Maichal

doi:10.19166/derema.v20i1.9625

Penulis

Franse franse STIE CIPUTRA MAKASSAR
Ferryanto Pietoyo
Steven Yoel Purnama
Gabriel Goardy
Alexander Tyrone Liong
Maichal Maichal

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.19166/derema.v20i1.9625

Kata Kunci:

Financial Ratios, Third-liner Stock, Speculative Dynamics, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), Random effects model

Abstrak

This study investigates whether traditional financial ratios remain valid predictors of stock prices in speculative market environments, focusing on third-liner stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2012 to 2019. Using panel data regression with a Random Effect Model on 72 companies, the research evaluates the influence of liquidity (Current Ratio), solvency (Debt-to-Equity Ratio), activity (Total Asset Turnover), and profitability (Return on Equity) on stock prices. The results show that only profitability (ROE) and solvency (DER) significantly affect stock prices, while liquidity and activity do not. However, the explanatory power of these ratios is minimal (adjusted R² = 0.02), indicating that stock prices in this segment are largely shaped by speculative dynamics rather than fundamentals. These findings highlight the limitations of conventional financial analysis in high-risk, manipulation-prone markets. The study suggests the need for improved investor education, stricter regulatory oversight, and future research integrating behavioral and sentiment-based indicators to better capture price movements in speculative stocks.

ABSTRAK DALAM BAHASA INDONESIA
Penelitian ini mengkaji apakah rasio keuangan tradisional masih menjadi prediktor yang relevan terhadap harga saham dalam lingkungan pasar yang spekulatif, dengan fokus pada saham third-liner di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) selama periode 2012 hingga 2019. Menggunakan regresi data panel dengan Random Effect Model pada 72 perusahaan, penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh likuiditas (Current Ratio), solvabilitas (Debt-to-Equity Ratio), aktivitas (Total Asset Turnover), dan profitabilitas (Return on Equity) terhadap harga saham. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hanya profitabilitas (ROE) dan solvabilitas (DER) yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga saham, sedangkan likuiditas dan aktivitas tidak berpengaruh. Namun, daya prediksi (adjusted R²) hanya sebesar 0,02, menunjukkan bahwa harga saham pada segmen ini lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh dinamika spekulatif daripada faktor fundamental. Temuan ini menyoroti keterbatasan analisis keuangan konvensional di pasar yang berisiko tinggi dan rawan manipulasi. Studi ini merekomendasikan peningkatan literasi investor, pengawasan regulasi yang lebih ketat, serta penelitian lanjutan yang mengintegrasikan indikator perilaku dan sentimen pasar untuk menangkap pergerakan harga secara lebih komprehensif.

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