RASIO KEUANGAN DAN KEMUNGKINAN GAGAL BAYAR DENGAN METODE KMV MERTON PADA PERUSAHAAN NON KEUANGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA [FINANCIAL RATIOS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DEFAULT USING THE KMV MERTON METHOD IN NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES ON THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE]
##semicolon##
https://doi.org/10.19166/derema.v15i1.1764##semicolon##
Probability of Default##common.commaListSeparator## KMV Merton##common.commaListSeparator## Rasio Keuangan##common.commaListSeparator## Bursa Efek Indonesia要旨
The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of financial ratios (Return on Equity, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, Total Assets Turnover) in predicting the probability of default. The samples in this study were 22 companies. Data was collected using library study methods and documentation which were analyzed using the Eviews program. The results of the research obtained are as follows: (1) Return on Equity (ROE) affects negatively the probability of default, (2) Current Ratio (CR) does not affect the probability of default, (3) Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) affects positively the probability of default, (4) Total Assets Turnover (TAT) affects negatively the probability of default.
Abstrak dalam Bahasa Indonesia Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh antara rasio keuangan (Return on Equity, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, Total Assets Turnover) dalam memprediksi kemungkinan gagal bayar (probabilitas default). Jumlah sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah 22 perusahaan. Data dikumpulkan dengan menggunakan metode studi pustaka dan dokumentasi yang kemudian dianalisis menggunakan program Eviews. Hasil penelitian yang diperoleh adalah sebagai berikut: (1) Return on Equity (ROE) berpengaruh negatif terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar, (2) Current Ratio (CR) tidak berpengaruh terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar, (3) Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) berpengaruh positif terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar (4) Total Assets Turnover (TAT) berpengaruh negatif terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar
##submission.citations##
Agus, S., Irwanto, A. K., & Maulana, T. N. A. (2014). Analisis pengaruh rasio keuangan terhadap probabilitas kebangkrutan empat bank dalam kelompok lg 45 di bursa efek indonesia. Widyariset, 17(1), 163-174.
Almilia, L. S., & Kristijadi, K. (2003). Analisis rasio keuangan untuk memprediksi kondisi financial distress perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di bursa efek Jakarta. Jurnal Akuntansi dan Auditing Indonesia, 7(2).
Black, F., & Cox, J. (1976). Valuing corporate securities: Some effects of bond indenture provisions. Journal of Finance, 31, 351-367. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1976.tb01891.x
Brealey, R. A., & Myers, S. C. (1991). Principles of corporate finance (4th ed). New York NY: McGraw Hill Inc.
Brigham, E., & Houston, J. F. (2001). Dasar-dasar manajemen keuangan (10th ed.). Jakarta, Indonesia: Salemba Empat.
Crosbie, P., & Bohn, J. (2003) Modeling default risk. Moody’s KMV.
Donaldson, G. (1961). Corporate debt capacity: A study of corporate debt policy and the determination of corporate debt capacity. Boston, MA: Harvard School of Business Administration.
Hanafi, M. (2005). Manajemen deuangan. Yogyakarta, Indonesia: BPFE.
Jiming, L. & Weiwei, D. (2011). An empirical study on the corporate financial distress prediction based on logistic model: Evidence from China’s manufacturing industry. International Journal of Digital Content Technology and its Applications, 5: 368-379. https://doi.org/10.4156/jdcta.vol5.issue6.44
Kasmir. (2009). Analisis laporan keuangan. Jakarta, Indonesia: Rajawali Pers.
Merton, R. (1974). On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. The Journal of Finance, 29(2), 449-470. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1974.tb03058.x
Myers, S. C. (1984). Capital structure puzzle, Journal of Finance, 39(3), 575-592. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1984.tb03646.x
Myers, S. C., & Majluf, N. S. (1984). Corporate financing and invesment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have. Journal of Financial Economics, 13(2), 187-221. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(84)90023-0
Pranowo, K., Achsani, N. A., Manurung, A. H., & Nuryartono, N.. (2010). Determinant of corporate financial distress in an emerging market economy: Empirical evidence from the Indonesian Stock Exchange 2004-2008. European Journal of Social Sciences, 16,(1) 138-149.
Rudiyanto. (2012). Mengenal Cara Kerja Obligasi 2 Analisa Risiko Obligasi. Retrieved from: http://rudiyanto.blog.kontan.co.id/2012/03/11/mengenal-cara-kerjaobligasi-2-analisa-risiko-obligasi/
Sartono. (2001). Manajemen keuangan teori dan aplikasi (4th ed.). Yogyakarta, Indonesia: BPFE.
Spence, M. (1973). Job market signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355-374. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010
Van Horne, J. C., & Wachowicz, J. M. (2005). Prinsip-prinsip Manajemen Keuangan (Fundamental of Financial Management) (12th ed.). Diterjemahkan oleh Dewi Fitriasari. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
Widarjono, A. (2009). Ekonometrika: Pengantar dan pplikasinya (Dilengkapi Aplikasi Eviews). Yogyakarta, Indonesia: Penerbit Ekonisia.
##submission.downloads##
出版済
巻号
セクション
##submission.license##
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
1) Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY-SA 4.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2) Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
3) Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website). The final published PDF should be used and bibliographic details that credit the publication in this journal should be included.
