PENGARUH FAKTOR-FAKTOR FINANCIAL DAN EKONOMI TERHADAP HARGA MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT DI INDONESIA [IMPACT OF FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS TO PALM OIL PRICE IN INDONESIA]
Abstract
Abstrak
Dalam investasi saham, salah satu tantangan terbesar adalah untuk menganalisa dan memprediksi saham-saham yang berhubungan dengan harga minyak kelapa sawit. Ada banyak ketidakpastian di dunia, yang menyebabkan prediksi harga dari minyak kelapa sawit mentah dan performa dari saham-saham yang berhubungan, menjadi sulit. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah menguji hubungan antara harga minyak kelapa sawit dengan finansial dan ekonomi di Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa minyak kelapa sawit cocok dijadikan variable tak bebas. Hasil lain menunjukkan bahwa adanya hubungan positif jangka panjang antara harga minyak kelapa sawit dengan import dan indeks Dow Jones, dan hubungan negatif jangka panjang antara harga minyak kelapa sawit dengan export, nilai tukar mata uang, IHSG, dan harga minyak bumi mentah. Selain itu, indeks USD dan volume perdagangan IHSG tidak mempunyai hubungan di model, sehingga kedua variable ini dihilangkan.
Kata kunci: Minyak kelapa sawit, VECM, faktor makro ekonomi
Abstract
In stock investing, one of the biggest challenges is to zanalyze and predict stocks related to palm oil price. There are many uncertainties in market, which cause the price prediction of crude palm oil and (CPO) and the performance of related stocks, are hard. The purpose of this paper is to test the association of palm oil price with the financial and economic in Indonesia. The result shows that palm oil is good for the dependent variable. Another finding indicates that palm oil price has a long-term positive association with import and Dow Jones index, and negative association with export, currency exchange, IHSG, and crude oil price. On the other hand, the USD index and IHSG Trading Volume have no relation in the model, then these two variables are excluded.
Keywords: Palm Oil, VECM, Macroeconomic factors
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