The Impact of Global Economic Wars on Emerging Markets: Legal Certainty and Capital Market Resilience in Indonesia
Kata Kunci:
capital market resilience, legal certainty, investor protectionAbstrak
This research critically examines the structural and legal challenges that undermine the resilience of Indonesia’s capital market during a period of heightened global economic instability. While the escalation of the United States–China trade war has introduced widespread volatility in financial systems worldwide, Indonesia remains particularly vulnerable due to its dependency on foreign capital and its domestic regulatory weaknesses. The analysis identifies key internal fragilities, including inconsistent enforcement of investor protection laws, regulatory uncertainty, and the growing influence of non-market actors such as mass organizations that disrupt commercial operations through extrajudicial means. A comparative legal framework is employed to evaluate the investor protection systems of China and the United States, revealing how centralized enforcement in China and institutional independence in the U.S. offer greater legal certainty and investor confidence. In contrast, Indonesia exhibits a hybrid model where capital market autonomy exists in theory but is frequently undermined by fragmented supervision, bureaucratic inertia, and politicized regulatory instruments. The discussion concludes that strengthening legal certainty, modernizing regulatory enforcement, and shielding capital markets from external and non-market pressures are critical to enhancing investor trust and financial stability. Reforms must focus not only on drafting comprehensive laws but also on ensuring their consistent application across jurisdictions. Without such measures, Indonesia risks capital flight, reduced competitiveness, and further marginalization in the global investment landscape.
Referensi
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Law No. 8 of 1995 on Capital Markets. State Gazette of the Republic of Indonesia Year 1995 No. 64, Supplement to State Gazette No. 3608. As amended by Law No. 4 of 2023 on the Development and Strengthening of the Financial Sector. State Gazette of the Republic of Indonesia Year 2023 No. 15, Supplement to State Gazette No. 6845.
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Law Administrative Procedure Act of 1946, 5 U.S.C. §§ 551–559.
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Securities Law of the People's Republic of China (Amended 2019) on Capital Markets. https://fyjjxy.zuel.edu.cn/_upload/article/files/68/72/2f6833774fa1b877d91a1fe06d06/addfdf5a-f0b2-4016-bb72-309fa105ff28.pdf.
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