RASIO KEUANGAN DAN KEMUNGKINAN GAGAL BAYAR DENGAN METODE KMV MERTON PADA PERUSAHAAN NON KEUANGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA [FINANCIAL RATIOS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF DEFAULT USING THE KMV MERTON METHOD IN NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES ON THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE]

Dessy Malasari, Mohamad Adam, Yuliani Yuliani, Agustina Hanafi

Abstract


The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of financial ratios (Return on Equity, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, Total Assets Turnover) in predicting the probability of default. The samples in this study were 22 companies. Data was collected using library study methods and documentation which were analyzed using the Eviews program. The results of the research obtained are as follows: (1) Return on Equity (ROE) affects negatively the probability of default, (2) Current Ratio (CR) does not affect the probability of default, (3) Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) affects positively the probability of default, (4) Total Assets Turnover (TAT) affects negatively the probability of default.

Abstrak dalam Bahasa Indonesia Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh antara rasio keuangan (Return on Equity, Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, Total Assets Turnover) dalam memprediksi kemungkinan gagal bayar (probabilitas default). Jumlah sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah 22 perusahaan. Data dikumpulkan dengan menggunakan metode studi pustaka dan dokumentasi yang kemudian dianalisis menggunakan program Eviews. Hasil penelitian yang diperoleh adalah sebagai berikut: (1) Return on Equity (ROE) berpengaruh negatif terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar, (2) Current Ratio (CR) tidak berpengaruh terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar, (3) Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) berpengaruh positif terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar (4) Total Assets Turnover (TAT) berpengaruh negatif terhadap kemungkinan gagal bayar


Keywords


Probability of Default; KMV Merton; Rasio Keuangan, Bursa Efek Indonesia



DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.19166/derema.v15i1.1764

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